Istanbul toll from tainted alcohol rises to 19 dead in 48 hours

Istanbul toll from tainted alcohol rises to 19 dead in 48 hours
Nineteen people who drank tainted alcohol in Istanbul have died in the past 48 hours, with dozens more being treated for poisoning, the Anadolu news agency reported Wednesday. (AFP/File)
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Updated 15 January 2025
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Istanbul toll from tainted alcohol rises to 19 dead in 48 hours

Istanbul toll from tainted alcohol rises to 19 dead in 48 hours
  • The figure raised a toll given late Tuesday of 11 dead in 24 hours, Anadolu said
  • A total of 65 people were affected, with 43 people still being treated in hospital and three others discharged

ISTANBUL: Nineteen people who drank tainted alcohol in Istanbul have died in the past 48 hours, with dozens more being treated for poisoning, the Anadolu news agency reported Wednesday.
The figure raised a toll given late Tuesday of 11 dead in 24 hours, Anadolu said.
A total of 65 people were affected, with 43 people still being treated in hospital and three others discharged.
Among them were 26 foreign nationals, the agency said without saying if any had died.
There was no immediate comment from the health ministry.
"The death toll is rising," wrote Istanbul governor Davut Gul on X late Tuesday, saying the "licences of 63 business selling counterfeit alcohol were cancelled and they were closed".
One of those was a business posing as a restaurant that was selling counterfeit alcohol in water bottles for 30 lira ($0.85) each, the private NTV channel said.
In 2024, 110 people fell ill after drinking tainted alcohol in Istanbul, of whom 48 died, the governorate said.
Alcohol tainted with methanol is thought to be the cause, methanol being a toxic substance that can be added to liquor to increase its potency but which can cause blindness, liver damage and death.
Poisonings from adulterated alcohol are quite common in Türkiye, where private production has shot up as authorities crank up taxes on alcoholic drinks.
The most commonly faked product is raki, Türkiye’s aniseed-flavoured national liquor whose price has leapt to around 1,300 lira ($37.20) a litre in supermarkets.
On January 1, Türkiye’s minimum wage rose to 22,104 lira ($600).
Türkiye’s authoritarian President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has been accused of trying to Islamise society in the officially secular state, has often criticised the consumption of alcohol and tobacco.


We cannot allow illegal annexation of the West Bank, Slovenia’s foreign minister warns

We cannot allow illegal annexation of the West Bank, Slovenia’s foreign minister warns
Updated 54 min 51 sec ago
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We cannot allow illegal annexation of the West Bank, Slovenia’s foreign minister warns

We cannot allow illegal annexation of the West Bank, Slovenia’s foreign minister warns
  • Nothing and no one is above international law, Tanja Fajon tells Arab News in New York
  • While immediate focus in Gaza must be to ensure ceasefire holds and aid enters the territory, world also needs to keep an eye on the path to a 2-state solution, she says

NEW YORK CITY: Throughout the first year of its two-year stint as an elected member of the UN Security Council, the primary world body tasked with maintaining international peace and security, Slovenia was relentless in pressing for a permanent ceasefire between Hamas and Israel in Gaza.
During the 15 months of war, Ljubljana’s representatives also intensified their calls to scale up deliveries of humanitarian aid to the starving population of the territory, while at the same time engaging in serious discussions about ways in which the implementation of a two-state solution might be expedited. Slovenia itself officially recognized Palestine as a state in June last year.
“I'm very proud that Slovenia was on the right side of history with the recognition of an independent and sovereign state of Palestine,” the country’s foreign minister, Tanja Fajon, told Arab News.
She said she is watching developments on the ceasefire front with “hope and relief,” albeit with the awareness that the situation is “very fragile.” All stakeholders in the region will have to commit to the agreement during all of its upcoming phases, she added, until it leads to a “permanent” cessation of hostilities and the dawn of long-awaited peace in the wider region.
During a chat with Arab News on the sidelines of a high-level meeting of the Security Council this week to discuss developments in the Middle East, Fajon said atrocities committed in Gaza during the conflict could amount to genocide.
On Jan. 26 last year, the International Court of Justice ruled that Israel’s actions in Gaza could amount to genocide, and set out six provisional measures with which Israel should comply to protect Palestinians in the territory from the threat of genocide. These measures included ensuring the sufficient provision of humanitarian assistance, and enabling the delivery of basic services.
Amnesty International has accused Israeli authorities of failing to take “even the bare minimum steps to comply” with the court’s ruling.
In November, the UN-backed International Criminal Court issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the former defense minister, Yoav Gallant, as well as a former Hamas commander, citing allegations of war crimes and crimes against humanity.
ICC Judges said there were reasonable grounds to believe that Netanyahu and Gallant bear criminal responsibility, as co-perpetrators, for the war crime of using starvation as a method of warfare, and the crimes against humanity of murder, persecution and other inhumane acts.
Several countries that are signatories to the ICC ignored its findings, with some stating they would refuse to abide by the arrest warrant.
These and other instances of disregard for international law have led many around the world to lament that the international system, of which the ICJ and ICC stand as main pillars, now lies in tatters.
As Philippe Lazzarini, the head of the UN Relief and Works Agency, the largest aid organization for Palestine refugees, told Arab News last week, the war in Gaza is a “crisis of impunity.”
He said: “What we have witnessed is an extraordinary ‘crisis of impunity,’ to the extent that international humanitarian law is almost becoming irrelevant if no mechanism is put in place to address this impunity.”
However, Fajon, whose country prides itself on the enshrinement of international law as the main pillar of its foreign policy, said she remains “strongly convinced that there is no alternative to the world order, the UN Charter, international law and international humanitarian law.”
She continued: “We need this organization (the UN.) We need multilateralism to be effective.”
There is a global consensus that there should be no impunity for the perpetrators of genocide, war crimes and crimes against humanity. But to successfully prosecute these crimes in national courts, effective cooperation and collaboration among governments is essential.
Experts in international law across five continents have concluded that the current international procedural legal framework for mutual legal assistance and extradition in cases involving the most serious international crimes is incomplete and outdated, effectively hampering the ability of states to cooperate effectively in the fight against impunity.
The desire to address this issue ultimately resulted in the development of the Ljublijana-The Hague Convention, spearheaded by Slovenia, Argentina, Belgium, Mongolia, the Netherlands and Senegal, and signed last year by 32 states.
Also known as the “MLA initiative,” it is a landmark international treaty that aims to ensure justice for victims of genocide, war crimes, crimes against humanity and other international crimes by facilitating international cooperation in domestic investigations into, and prosecutions of, such crimes.
Fajon, who is also Slovenia’s deputy prime minister, said: “There can be nothing above international law and international humanitarian law.
“We are strongly committed to the work of international tribunals, be it the ICJ or ICC. And we have to really focus on accountability for those perpetrators who are responsible for atrocities and human tragedies. They have to be brought to justice.”
While the priority now must be to “vigilantly” monitor the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, Fajon said, and “do everything in our power” to ensure it holds and progresses to become a permanent ceasefire, “we cannot allow a possible illegal annexation of the West Bank.”
She added that “there are also really serious concerns” about UNRWA’s ability to continue its work, given an Israeli ban on the organization that is due to take effect next week.
Work with the Global Alliance on the Two State solution should also continue to help ensure a “strong” Palestinian Authority emerges after 15 months of war, Fajon said. Slovenia will also work to help facilitate Palestinian Authority control of Gaza, the West Bank and East Jerusalem, she added, and “really be engaged to make sure there is security for Israelis and statehood of Palestine, for true peace in the region to be established.”
The Saudi foreign minister, Prince Faisal bin Farhan, presided over a gathering in New York in September to discuss the situation in Gaza, which was co-hosted by the EU, the Arab League and the Organization of the Islamic Cooperation. From this meeting, which attracted more than 100 participants, the Global Alliance for the Implementation of the Two State Solution emerged.
The Kingdom plays “a crucial role” in maintaining stability in the region, Fajon said.
“Saudi Arabia is also a very important partner and mediator,” she added. “So I see a strong role of Saudi Arabia, and I hope we can rely on such a strong role also in the future, especially the role that preserves what is most necessary: that is, international law, international humanitarian law, and the UN charter.
“These have to be respected no matter where. And Saudi (Arabia) being a mediator and a good partner also to Slovenia, I do hope we will continue to develop relations in that regard.”


Trump designates Yemen’s Houthis as a ‘foreign terrorist organization’

Trump designates Yemen’s Houthis as a ‘foreign terrorist organization’
Updated 20 min 58 sec ago
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Trump designates Yemen’s Houthis as a ‘foreign terrorist organization’

Trump designates Yemen’s Houthis as a ‘foreign terrorist organization’
  • The Houthis’ activities threaten the security of American civilians and personnel in the Middle East, the White House says

WASHINGTON: US President Donald Trump on Wednesday re-designated Yemen’s Houthi movement, known formally as Ansar Allah, as a “foreign terrorist organization,” the White House said.
The move will impose harsher economic penalties than the Biden administration had applied to the Iran-aligned group in response to its attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea and against US warships defending the critical maritime chokepoint.
Proponents of the move say it is overdue, though some experts say it could have implications for anyone seen as aiding the Houthis, including some aid organizations.
“The Houthis’ activities threaten the security of American civilians and personnel in the Middle East, the safety of our closest regional partners, and the stability of global maritime trade,” the White House said in a statement.
The Houthis, who control most of Yemen, have carried out more than 100 attacks on ships plying the Red Sea since November 2023, saying they were acting in solidarity with Palestinians over Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza. They have sunk two vessels, seized another and killed at least four seafarers.
The attacks have disrupted global shipping, forcing firms to re-route to longer and more expensive journeys around southern Africa for more than a year.
The group has targeted the southern Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, which are joined by the narrow Bab Al-Mandab strait, a chokepoint between the Horn of Africa and the Middle East.
Under the Biden administration, the US military sought to intercept Houthi attacks to safeguard commercial traffic and waged periodic strikes to degrade Houthi military capabilities. But it did not target the group’s leadership.
At the start of his presidential term in 2021, Joe Biden had dropped Trump’s terrorist designations to address humanitarian concerns inside Yemen. Confronted with the Red Sea attacks, Biden last year designated the group as a “Specially Designated Global Terrorist” organization. But his administration held off on applying the harsher FTO designation.
British charity Oxfam said the move would worsen the suffering of Yemeni civilians, disrupting vital imports of food, medicine, and fuel.
“The Trump administration is aware of these consequences but chose to move forward anyway, and will bear responsibility for the hunger and disease that will follow,” Oxfam America’s director of peace and security, Scott Paul, said in a statement.
David Schenker, who was assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern affairs in the first Trump administration, said Trump’s move on Wednesday was an obvious, early step to respond to what he described as one of Iran’s leading proxy forces in the Middle East.
“While the redesignation likely won’t have a positive impact on the group’s behavior, the measure suggests the new administration is not looking to induce (or cajole) the Iranians to negotiations through blandishment,” Schenker told Reuters.
The Trump administration said the US will work with regional partners to eliminate Houthi capabilities, deprive it of resources “and thereby end its attacks on US personnel and civilians, US partners, and maritime shipping in the Red Sea.”
The designation will also trigger a broad review of UN partners, non-governmental organizations and contractors operating in Yemen, the White House said.
“The President will direct USAID to end its relationship with entities that have made payments to the Houthis, or which have opposed international efforts to counter the Houthis while turning a blind eye toward the Houthis’ terrorism and abuses,” the White House said.
The Houthis in recent days have signaled they were scaling back attacks in the Red Sea following a multi-phase cease fire deal between Israel and Hamas. Earlier on Wednesday, the group released the crew of the Galaxy Leader commercial ship more than a year after they seized their Bahamas-flagged vessel off the Yemeni coast.


Israel military says killed Islamic Jihad militant during Gaza truce

Israel military says killed Islamic Jihad militant during Gaza truce
Updated 22 January 2025
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Israel military says killed Islamic Jihad militant during Gaza truce

Israel military says killed Islamic Jihad militant during Gaza truce
  • The military said Israeli troops in southern Gaza “identified several armed suspects who posed a threat” and “operated to thwart the threat and eliminate” a militant
  • It also said that in several areas of the Gaza Strip, its soldiers “fired warning shots“

JERUSALEM: The Israeli military said Wednesday that it killed an Islamic Jihad militant in southern Gaza, the first such reported death since the start of a ceasefire with Hamas in the Palestinian territory.
In a statement, the military said Israeli troops in southern Gaza “identified several armed suspects who posed a threat” and “operated to thwart the threat and eliminate” a militant from Hamas ally Islamic Jihad.
It also said that in several areas of the Gaza Strip, its soldiers “fired warning shots” toward “masked suspects” approaching Israeli troops.
The military added it was abiding by the terms of the ceasefire that began on Sunday.
“The (Israeli military) is determined to fully maintain the terms of the agreement in order to return the hostages,” it said.
As part of the first phase of the ceasefire, which is intended to last 42 days, Israeli forces are withdrawing from densely populated areas in the Gaza Strip.
The military warned Palestinians to “avoid approaching the troops.”


Simmering anger as Turkiye buries ski hotel fire victims

Simmering anger as Turkiye buries ski hotel fire victims
Updated 22 January 2025
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Simmering anger as Turkiye buries ski hotel fire victims

Simmering anger as Turkiye buries ski hotel fire victims
  • The fire, which began in the middle of the night, struck at peak season for the hotel, with 238 guests staying for the winter school holidays which began on Friday

KARTALKAYA, Turkiye: Anger was growing in Turkiye on Wednesday as allegations piled up that negligence played a role in the deaths of 79 people who perished when a huge fire swept through a luxury ski resort hotel in northern Turkiye.
With the nation observing a day of mourning, grieving families began burying their dead as questions multiplied about fire safety measures at the 12-story Grand Kartal Hotel perched on a mountaintop in the Kartalkaya resort.
Front pages, including those of the pro-government dailies, were plastered with allegations of negligence which they blamed for the shocking death toll.
On a freezing foggy morning, with flags flying at half-mast, 12 of the 51 injured were still in hospital, including one in intensive care.
“There is no excuse for such a high number of deaths in 2025,” Ozgur Ozel, leader of the main opposition CHP party, said outside the blackened facade of the hotel where rescuers were combing through the ruins on Wednesday.
The fire, which began in the middle of the night, struck at peak season for the hotel, with 238 guests staying for the winter school holidays which began on Friday.
At a funeral in the nearby town of Bolu for eight members of the same family who died in the blaze, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan could be seen wiping away tears, his head bowed.
“When I got to the hotel, there were flames everywhere and we could hear screams,” said Cevdet Can, who runs a nearby ski school.
“I saw one person jump out of the window” to her death, Can told AFP, adding that it was seeing children trapped “that upset me most.”
Another ski instructor who escaped the hotel unharmed said he was unable to rescue his pupils, the youngest of whom was six.
“I lost five of my students who were staying on the sixth and seventh floors,” 58-year-old Necmi Kepcetutan told AFP, adding that another colleague had jumped to her death.
The blaze broke out around 3:30 am (0030 GMT), sparking panic among the guests, many of whom tried to climb out of the windows, using bedsheets as ropes.
Some fell to their deaths, media reports said.
Speaking to Turkish media outlets, many survivors told the same story: that there were no alarms warning them about the fire, no fire doors, and no safe ways for people to exit the hotel.
Tourism Minister Nuri Ersoy on Tuesday said that the hotel had passed an inspection last year and had two fire escapes, saying “no issues related to fire safety had been flagged by the fire department.”
A rescuer with the national catastrophe management agency Afad told AFP on condition of anonymity that “I saw fire escapes, but I suggest comparing this hotel’s fire escapes to those at nearby hotels. In the end, experts will decide.”
So far, 11 people have been arrested, among them the hotel’s owner, general manager, director and chief electrician, as well as the chief of Bolu’s fire department, the justice ministry told AFP.
The hotel’s management has presented its condolences and said it would cooperate with authorities to “shed full light on this accident.”
Situated at one of the most expensive ski resorts in Turkiye, the hotel boasted a prestigious client list that included executives, entrepreneurs and well-known doctors, many of whom were there with their children and family members.
By Wednesday afternoon, more than 20 victims had yet to be identified.


To secure Gaza ceasefire, dealmakers overcame enemies’ deep distrust

To secure Gaza ceasefire, dealmakers overcame enemies’ deep distrust
Updated 22 January 2025
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To secure Gaza ceasefire, dealmakers overcame enemies’ deep distrust

To secure Gaza ceasefire, dealmakers overcame enemies’ deep distrust
  • The deal calls for Israel and Hamas to resume talks just over a week from now, to work out the second phase. That is supposed to include the release of all remaining hostages, living and dead, and a permanent ceasefire

Inside a lavish clubhouse on Doha’s waterfront, tensions strained by months of fruitless back-and-forth weighed on negotiators as the hour neared 3 a.m.
On the first floor, a Hamas delegation whose leader had once evaded an Israeli airstrike that killed seven family members combed through the details of yet another proposal to halt the war in Gaza. On the second floor, advisers to Israel’s intelligence chief, who had vowed to hunt down those responsible for the Oct. 7, 2023, attack that ignited the war, did the same.
With Qatari, US and Egyptian mediators pushing for resolution, did the sides — such bitter enemies that they refused to speak directly to one another — at last have a deal to pause the fighting and bring dozens of Israeli hostages home?
“They were extremely suspicious toward each other. No trust at all,” said an Egyptian official involved in the negotiations, who spoke on condition of anonymity. The talks that night a week ago dragged on over disagreements about maps showing where Israel would begin withdrawing troops and its demand that Hamas provide a list of hostages who remained alive, he said.
“Both parties were looking at each word in the deal as a trap.”
By the time Qatar’s prime minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, announced a ceasefire deal last Wednesday evening, mediators had scrambled again to defuse objections by both sides. Even then, disagreements and delays continued over the two days that followed.
But as the fighting in Gaza paused this week, three young Israeli women were released from captivity and dozens of Palestinian prisoners were freed by Israel, the agreement, however tenuous, has held.
After months of deadlock, a singular moment for dealmaking
The story of how Israel and Hamas found their way to a deal stretches back over more than a year. But the timing and unlikely partners who coalesced to push negotiations across the line help explain why it finally happened now.
“Over the course of the last week all of the stars aligned finally in a way that, after 15 months of carnage and bloodshed, negotiations came to fruition,” said Mehran Kamrava, a professor of government at Georgetown University in Qatar.
The agreement was the product of a singular political moment, with one US president preparing to hand power to another.
Both were pushing for a deal to free some 100 Israeli hostages and bring an end to a conflict that began with the killing of about 1,200 in Israel and that Palestinian health officials say has killed more than 47,000 in Gaza.
The health officials do not distinguish between civilians and militants, but say more than half of those killed were women and children.
In tiny but wealthy Qatar, the talks had a steward that positions itself as a go-between in a region on edge, one that hosts the largest US military base in the Middle East even as it provides offices for leaders of Hamas and the Taliban. Egypt, eager to ease instability that has driven an influx of Palestinians across its border and sparked attacks on sea lanes by Houthi rebels, worked to keep the talks on track.
The circumstances partnered Sheikh Mohammed with improbable allies. Then-President Joe Biden sent Brett McGurk, a veteran Middle East hand in both Republican and Democratic administrations. Donald Trump dispatched Steve Witkoff, a Bronx-born real estate billionaire with little if any diplomatic experience, but a longtime friendship with the then-president-elect.
The deal they brought together calls for continued negotiations that could be even more fraught, but with the potential to release the remaining hostages and end a war that has destroyed much of Gaza and roiled the entire region.
Pressure mounted on Israel and Hamas
In the end, negotiators got it done in a matter of days. But it followed months of deadlock over the number of Israeli hostages that would be freed, the number of Palestinian prisoners to be released and the parameters of a pullback by Israeli troops in the embattled enclave.
In late May, Biden laid out a proposed deal, which he said had come from Israel. It drew heavily on language and concepts hammered out with Qatari and Egyptian mediators, calling for a phased agreement with continued negotiation toward a “sustainable calm” – verbiage designed to satisfy both sides.
But talks had stalled even before the detonation of a bomb, attributed to Israel, in late July killed Ismail Haniyeh, the head of Hamas’ political bureau. And efforts by mediators to restart them were derailed when Israeli forces found the bodies of six hostages in a Gaza tunnel in August.
“Whoever murders hostages does not want a deal,” Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said.
Pressure on Hamas increased after Israeli forces killed leader Yahya Sinwar — an architect of the Oct. 7 attack — and launched a devastating offensive against Lebanon’s Hezbollah, the group’s longtime ally.
But Qatari officials, frustrated by the lack of progress, announced they were suspending mediation until both sides demonstrated willingness to negotiate.
Weeks later, Trump dispatched Witkoff, a golfing buddy whose most notable prior link to the Middle East was his $623 million sale of New York’s Park Lane Hotel to Qatar’s sovereign wealth fund in 2023.
Flying to Doha in late November, Witkoff asked mediators to lay out the problems undermining the talks, then continued on to meet officials in Israel. The talks restarted soon after, gaining ground through December.
“Witkoff and McGurk were pushing the Israelis. Qatar was pushing Hamas,” said an official briefed on the talks who spoke on condition of anonymity.
Cooperation between Biden and Trump advisers was key
Assigning credit for the progress depends on viewpoint.
The Egyptian official recounted the frustration of successfully pushing Hamas to agree to changes last summer, only to find Netanyahu imposing new conditions.
An Israeli official who spoke on condition of anonymity last week because the negotiations were ongoing said Sinwar’s death and Iran’s weakening influence in the region forced Hamas’ hand, leading to real give-and-take rather than “playing a game of negotiation.”
He and others close to the process said Trump’s rhetoric and dispatch of an envoy had injected new momentum. The Egyptian official pointed to a statement by Trump on social media that there would be “hell to pay” if the hostages were not released, saying it had pressured both Hamas and Israeli officials to get a deal done.
And mediators said the willingness of Witkoff and McGurk — representing leaders loathe to give one another credit for the deal – to partner up was critical.
“How they have handled this as a team since the election, without yet being in office, has really helped close the gaps that allowed us to reach a deal,” Majed Al Ansari, the adviser to Qatar’s prime minister and spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said in a statement.
In early January, there was a breakthrough in the talks when Hamas agreed to provide a list of hostages it would release in the first phase of a deal, an official briefed on the talks said.
McGurk flew from Washington to Doha hours later. Witkoff followed at week’s end.
The following day – Saturday, January 11 – Witkoff flew to Israel, securing a meeting with Netanyahu even though it was the Jewish sabbath. McGurk called in. Netanyahu agreed to send the heads of Israeli intelligence and internal security back to Doha for negotiations.
That led to extended negotiations, most convening in the Qatari prime minister’s private office, that lasted late into the night.
At points, mediators shuttled back and forth between adversaries on different floors. At others, the chief negotiators for the two sides cycled separately into the prime minister’s office to hash out details.
“But the Hamas and Israeli delegations never crossed paths,” said the official briefed on the talks.
Ceasefire conditions debated up until the last moment
After the lead negotiators for each side left Sheikh Mohammed’s office late Tuesday, the work shifted to the waterfront club owned by the foreign affairs ministry, where “technical teams” from both sides pored over the specific language, a floor apart.
“Until late the first hours of Wednesday we were working tirelessly to resolve last-minute disputes,” said the Egyptian official involved in the negotiations.
After extended discussions focused on the buffer zone Israel is to maintain in Gaza and the names of prisoners to be released, the long night ended with an agreement seemingly at hand, said the official briefed on the talks.
But with reporters gathering Wednesday evening for an announcement, “a last-minute hiccup, last-minute requests from both sides” forced a delay, the official said.
Israel accused Hamas of trying to make changes to already agreed upon arrangements along Gaza’s border with Egypt. Hamas called the claims “nonsense.”
A senior US official involved in the talks said Hamas negotiators made several last-minute demands, but “we held very firm.”
After calling the Hamas negotiators into his office, with the media and the world still anxiously waiting, the Qatari prime minister met separately with the Israelis and US envoys. Finally, three hours behind schedule, Sheikh Mohammed stepped to a lectern to announce the parties had reached an agreement.
Even then, negotiations resumed the following day to wrangle with questions about final implementation of the deal and mechanisms for doing so. By the time the talks ended, it was 4 a.m.
Hours later, Israeli President Isaac Herzog voiced his hope that the deal would bring a national moment of goodwill, healing and rebuilding.
But no one can say how long it will last.
The deal calls for Israel and Hamas to resume talks just over a week from now, to work out the second phase. That is supposed to include the release of all remaining hostages, living and dead, and a permanent ceasefire. But getting there, observers say, will likely be even tougher.